Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Presidential Predictions

As Iowans begin caucusing, a few observations:
  • I predict that Hillary will win Iowa by the slightest margins. In the end, popularity does not determine a winner--whoever has the best campaign structure, organization, and method of organizing and galvanizing supporters will win. Many parallels exist between Howard Dean's meteoric rise and fall and Obama's popularity. Remember that Iowa has a caucus--voters can enter with predetermined decisions but be swayed and persuaded by other voters in the town hall-style forums to switch their loyalties. In 2004, voters opted to ditch the poll leader and wildly-popular Dean in favor of the establishment candidate--John Kerry. I predict they will do so again.
  • If Edwards somehow pulls off a win in Iowa, the symbolic victory will be devoid of any substance or promise. It won't carry over to any other state (polls show he can't even win his home state of NC) and he doesn't have the money, organization, or resources to compete across the U.S. and over the entire primary calendar
  • However, the closeness of Iowa will ensure that the race won't be over after Jan. 3rd. Hillary will have to fight through Super Tuesday.
  • I won't predict whether Huckabee or Romney comes out on top in Iowa. However, the Huckabee-Romney tug-of-war only helps Giuliani as they fight each other for the social conservative vote. Giuliani can lose Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina but remain viable if he comes out on top in Florida. Giuliani won't make the top 3 in Iowa (but I predict he comes in at #4). Giuliani needs to come in at #2 or #3 in New Hampshire. I predict Giuliani comes in at #2 in New Hampshire and #3 in South Carolina, ensuring his viability before Florida. Michigan is also a test for Giuliani. Romney has strong ties to the Great Lakes state, but Giuliani has led in the state for most of the year. He needs to win the state outright or come in at #2. That's my prediction (if Huckabee fails to win Iowa, Giuliani's chances at gaining in Michigan and South Carolina become more likely).
  • McCain must win in the top 4 in Iowa and win New Hampshire or he's done. A 3rd place finish in New Hampshire dooms McCain's candidacy. If this happens, I predict that he drops out and throws his support behind Giuliani, enabling him to solidify his position and win big on Super Tuesday. If McCain shows promise in the early states and stays in the race, we may not be able to definitively identify the Republican nominee until after Super Tuesday at the earliest (and maybe not until Convention).

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Brandon! I like your predictions....and I thought I'd be the first to post, before any jerks get on here and try to argue just for the sake of it :)

-Erin

Scott said...

For the record, John Edwards is from SC.

Bryan J. Brown said...

I predict that Ron Paul will smoke Rudy in Iowa .... (Ok, he already did)

And then again in NH

Anonymous said...

More proof that Kening is a fool...

Brandon said...

Just to clear things up...

John Edwards IS from North Carolina, not South Carolina (he was the senator from NC for gosh sakes)

Secondly, apparently I'm a fool for going out on a limb and making predictions. Where are your predictions anonymous #2? It is almost impossible to ever predict completely what will happen in an Iowa caucus. I predicted Hillary would win Iowa based on past indicators and I was wrong. Sue me! People who hide under anonymous labels and cannot offer anything constructive should refrain from criticism.

Bryan J. Brown said...

C'mon Brandon, shake it off and get back on the horse.
Allow me to demostrate how . . .

Hill will get her back end kicked again in NH, Dennis K will do better than the MSM wants to think he can, Edwards will, too, and RP will turn in a respectable 15%. McCain hits 20%. Romney hits about 25%. THompson and Rudy are no shows, drawing less than 10%.

I am probably wrong as rain, and did not put much thought into this. I must want to spur you on again, son.
No get bloggin!

Anonymous said...

People who can't take criticism lightly shouldn't make predictions.

Brandon said...

Being called a fool isn't criticism, it's an ad hominem attack. If you want to criticize my predictions, feel free to do so, but trying to spin "name-calling" by equating it to "criticism" just doesn't cut it.