BREAKING NEWS: Michael Steele elected the new RNC chair

Former Maryland Lt. Governor Michael Steele was elected chair of the RNC today with 91 votes. The Konnection is pleased with the choice of Steele, who brings youth, vision, and innovative ideas to revitalize a struggling party. We trust that with Steele as RNC chair, he will be a much more visible head of the party, unlike Mike Duncan, and will ensure that the party not only increases its outreach to youth and upgrades its infrastructure technologically, but will also work to make conservatism more relevant, viable, and attractive to voters who have fallen away in recent years.

This marks a generational shift and for the first time, both the leaders of the Republican and Democratic parties are African-American.

Upcoming Elections: Obama-mentum or GOP-led Comeback?

Only a few states have off-year, odd-numbered year elections and these races can often provide insight or a glimpse at trends. While Republicans have been demoralized with Obama’s large win and the Democratic stranglehold on both houses of congress, they can take comfort in the fact that they have won all three congressional elections that have occurred after Nov. 4th (Chambliss’ re-election in Georgia, and two house seats in LA—one of them a pickup in the defeat of indicted Dem. Incumbent William Jefferson in an ultra-liberal New Orleans district the GOP has not held since the 1800s).

New Jersey and Virgina have upcoming gubernatorial elections. VA Attorney General Bob McDonnell has a clear field on the Republican side and has a slight advantage in the race, which would be a pickup for the GOP. According to a Rasmussen poll conducted last month, he leads Dem. Brian Moran by 41-37 percent, runs dead even with Rep. Creigh Deeds 39-39 percent, and leads Dem. Frontrunner, Clinton advisor, and former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe 41-37 percent. At this time, unaffiliated voters are leaning towards McDonnell. Although is is still too early, this is great news for Virginia Republicans.

And now, a Rasmussen poll of this year's NJ Governor's race:

New Jersey always seems like fool’s gold for the GOP. Time and time again, polls show unpopular Democrats doing poorly in polls against Republican challengers only to win in November and retain the advantages of the state’s Democratic party machine. But let’s not forget that New Jersey had a Republican governor as recently as 2002 and has held a lock on the governor’s office for more than 20 out of the last 30 years. Could this be the year that residents of the highest-taxed state in the union reject institutionalized corruption once and for all? Corzine’s approval rating is below 50 percent—an ominous sign for any incumbent—and his association with Goldman Sach’s has hurt him with public disapproval of the banking bailout at an all-time high. Combine that with the state’s budget woes, fiscal mismanagement, and soaring taxes, and U.S. attorney Chris Christie, who has won kudos for prosecuting corruption in the state, may have a serious chance after all as this poll suggests. The GOP may go for 2-0 in pickups in an off-year, which could signal a very good year for Republicans looking ahead to 2010.

Looking to 2010, the latest polling out of California is most shocking—if the numbers are to be believed, the Republicans have a good chance of holding on to this bluest of blue states with a Republican more in line with party values than Ah-nuld. Former eBay chief executive Meg Whitman formerly worked on Romney’s campaign before becoming McCain’s finance director and is known as a fiscal hawk—which should be attractive in a state with a ballooning deficit and no taxes left to raise. Whitman leads two of the leading Democratic contenders and is within striking distance of former Gov. Jerry Brown.

Of course, other Republicans including CA state insurance commissioner Steve Poizner and newly-elected Congressman Tom McClintock have expressed interest in running for the state’s top job and it remains to be seen if either of them can be as competitive as Whitman when matched up against the top Democratic contenders.

Terror Targets: New York, D.C....and Kansas?

Several months have passed since the media and political pundits began pondering the ramifications of Obama’s campaign promise to close the prison at Guantanamo Bay, and as politicians and media speculated on potential domestic sites for the terrorist prison here in the U.S., it became obvious that the Obama administration was considering the disturbing possibility of placing these dangerous terrorists in Ft. Leavenworth—just minutes from the Kansas City metro area. Fortunately for us, Kansas has two hardworking senators in Pat Roberts and Sam Brownback, who have already introduced legislation in the Senate to block any proposal to house the prisoners at Leavenworth. Additionally, Congresswoman Lynn Jenkins, who now represents Leavenworth as part of Kansas’ 2nd district, has also been an outspoken opponent of the idea and has introduced house legislation to block it. Yet Gov. Kathleen Sebelius has remained silent on the matter for months (perhaps due to her friendship and endorsement of Obama and the desire not to impede his election chances). Well, now Sebelius has given an detached statement claiming to oppose the use of Leavenworth to house the prisoners, while reiterating her support for closing Guantanamo. Too little, too late.

The other day, Geraldo was discussing this issue on a panel in a segment of Sean Hannity’s new show on Fox News when one of the panel members who favored keeping Guantanamo open asked Geraldo where he thinks the prisoners should go. Geraldo shot back, “put them in Fort Leavenworth, no one lives there.” Brushing aside Geraldo’s arrogant and elitist reaction for a moment (I doubt he would be so quick to advocate the housing of terror suspects in his own backyard of New York City), Geraldo’s statement displays remarkable ignorance. For Geraldo, like most other media, entertainment, and political elites, Kansas City is just flyover country—the part of your travel where you nap, have that intoxicating in-flight beverage, or snack on airplane food while bouncing back and forth between the east and west coasts. It is doubtful Geraldo has even been to Kansas City, much less Leavenworth, or he would know Leavenworth has a population of 35,000 and is just minutes from one of the major population centers of the Midwest with a metro population of over 2 million.

The new administration’s potential decision to transfer terror suspects to the continental U.S. could be one of its first major missteps and prove to be incredibly unpopular. These suspects are undeniably dangerous---61 of the suspects who were released were recaptured on the battlefields of Afghanistan and Iraq. In Guantanamo Bay, the suspects are isolated from civilian populations and other prison populations, ensuring safety for all involved and lessening the risks posed by a prison escape.

If the prisoners are transferred to the U.S., there will be an obvious and eminent security risk for all civilian populations living in a 50 mile radius of the prison, as they would be directly in the path and possible target zone of escaped terrorists. Also, if the terror suspects are not housed in a separate facility completely, but are housed with other prisoners, the risk increases for radical Islam to spread among the general prison population, a disturbing trend already taking place in prisons throughout the country, most notably in California.

Lastly, the most grave and unmentioned threat would be the international impact and attention on any area of the country that houses the prisoners. The prison location and its nearest metropolitan area would immediately become a target for terrorism by Al Qaeda and splinter cells around the world.

These reasons alone should be enough to counter any move to transfer suspects to the continental U.S, but unfortunately, Kansas remains a possible target by the incoming administration, and rather than exert her heavy influence over the administration’s policy, Sebelius has chosen to put her ambitions first. “Change we can believe in” may become way more than we bargained for—a national security risk we cannot afford.

Up-and-coming Kansas Republican Rockstars: the Future of the Kansas GOP

Kansas Republicans, in contrast to the national outcome, made gains against the Democrats in 2008 and 2010 promises to be a banner year for Republicans, as Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh and Sen. Sam Brownback jockey for the GOP nomination for governor in order to put that office back in Republican control (it will be), and Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt run for Brownback’s U.S. Senate seat. In addition, a slew of state senate seats will be up for grabs, all 125 state house seats will be up, and all statewide offices will be up (the Konnection has received credible tips that attorney and state GOP chair Kris Kobach is set on re-claiming the attorney general’s seat for the GOP). Meanwhile, here are some Kansas Republican pols on the younger side who we believe will be powerful leaders in the future based on their current successes:

Kevin Yoder—this young KU law school grad and current attorney is now serving his 3rd term in the house representing an Overland Park-based district that includes the headquarters of Sprint. Yoder is known as a pragmatic voice in the legislature who transcends the moderate/conservative political divide in the Kansas GOP and is well respected by moderates and conservatives alike. Yoder won his race this year with more than 60 percent of the vote and is constantly mentioned as a favorite for Johnson County DA in the future, state senate, and even congress. Yoder was recently named chair of the power Appropriations committee.

Julia Lynn—another young, energetic, and bright newcomer, Lynn faced a strong opponent in Olathe Superintendent Ron Wimmer in her first election bid after being appointed to Kay O’Connor’s seat by the GOP precinct committee members in 2007, but Lynn won by a resounding 10 percent. Lynn was recently named vice chair of the Tax and Commerce committees, a major accomplishment for a freshman legislator who will be making waves in Topeka and throughout her political career.

Kasha Kelly--this dynamic Arkansas City representative has championed budget reform, fiscal responsibility, and led the implemention of the state's first sunshine laws to promote state budget transparency online. Kelly has incredible skill and drive, which makes her a rising star in the party.

Lance Kinzer--this third-term Olathe lawyer carefully researches the issues and knows the Kansas constitution like the back of his hand. Kinzer has championed reductions in state spending and a strict constructivist view of the state constitution. He has also worked across the aisle and written critical legislation to downsize government and halt its growth. Look for Kinzer to run for AG someday.

Lynn Jenkins—popular state treasurer took on native son and former congressman Jim Ryun and overcame long odds, defying the pundits and winning. But she didn’t stop there—Jenkins promised new Republican leadership, running on a strong platform of the core issues of low taxes, cutting wasteful spending, eliminating earmarks, and sealing the borders. In one of only a few defeats of incumbent Democrats nationwide, Jenkins returned the 2nd District to Republican control. Jenkins will be a powerful force in Washington and strong voice from Kansas, serving as a prime example of the type of campaign Republicans need to run if they want to regain power.

Steve Howe—conservative, bridge-builder, 15-year veteran of the Johnson County DA’s office who united Republicans around his candidacy and defeated political opportunist and turncoat Rick Guinn in November, despite being heavily outspent. I personally know Steve well and worked in the DA’s office with him and he will be an honest, effective, and tireless advocate on behalf of the citizens of this county. It will be refreshing to move beyond the political posturing, corruption, and controversy-plagued administrations of Morrison and Kline. The question is: what is next in Howe’s political future?

Mark Gilstrap switches to GOP

The media has inundated us with reports of Republican defections to the KS Democratic Party in recent years, yet there is only brief mention of Kansas City, KS State Senator Mark Gilstrap’s recent defection to the Republican Party. Gilstrap, the most conservative Democrat in Topeka, has supported Kline for Attorney General, and is a pro-life social conservative with fiscally-conservative tendencies. Sebelius’ unprecedented endorsement of Gilstrap’s primary opponent led Gilstrap to lose his longtime seat in the Democratic primary. Really, Gilstrap had no choice as his party all but abandoned him and decided it had no use for someone who wasn’t going to tow the liberal party line of the governor. Gilstrap returned the favor by endorsing Republican Steve Fitzgerald in the general election.

Republican Steve Fitzgerald has come within four points of winning this KCK seat twice now. The Konnection believes that Gilstrap should and must run as the Republican nominee in 2010—his odds of beating Kelly Kultala would be great, since he is well-known in the district and would attract a substantial Democratic crossover vote. Additionally, the lost of an additional senate seat would reduce Democratic numbers in the state senate to an abysmal 8 members in the 40 member body—a profound failure considering Sebelius massive fundraising efforts and long-term goal of increasing the party’s numbers in that body and in the state house.

The Political Upset of the Decade

Joseph Cao: One of the new faces of the GOP

Two special congressional elections were held in Louisiana yesterday. Republican physician John Fleming narrowly beat popular former Democratic attorney Paul Carmouche by 300 votes, holding this seat for the GOP. But LA-2 was the scene of the most shocking upset of the night, astounding all political pundits and observers. This New Orleans based district takes in only two parishes (counties) in Louisiana—Orleans and Jefferson—and due to its demographics (an urban, majority black district), it has long been the most Democratic district in the state. That changed Saturday in a historic moment when New Orleans voters voted out disgraced and indicted Congressman William Jefferson and elected Republican attorney Joseph Cao to congress, 50 to 47 percent. Some quick facts on this historic win:

• Cao becomes the first Republican to represent this New Orleans-based district since 1891—a span of more than 100 years
• Cao becomes the first Republican to represent a majority African-American (60 percent black) congressional district in America
• Cao becomes the first Republican to represent a U.S. congressional district with a 28 point Democratic lean (Obama won this district with 75 percent of the vote)
• Cao becomes the first Vietnamese-American to serve in congress and he comes from the party of real diversity, the Republican Party

Now, naysayers will dismiss and downplay the results, claiming this was a vote against Jefferson, not a vote for Cao, and that Jefferson’s federal indictment and legal troubles doomed his re-election bid, combined with low turnout for a special election originally postponed due to Hurrican Gustav. All of those factors are valid reasons for explaining Jefferson’s loss, but those factors alone do not explain Cao’s win. Jefferson was under federal indictment in 2006 and still won re-election convincingly. The difference this year? The Republicans recruited an inspiring reformer who represented the growing diversity of his district, someone with an intriguing life story (Cao arrived in the U.S. as child from Saigon in the aftermath of Vietnam War as his family sought to escape communism), someone well-connected with his community, with a history of service and volunteer commitment to the city of New Orleans. Cao built coalitions that included former Democratic candidates and independents, knocked on more doors and held more community forums than any Republican challenger in the past. In addition, his efforts were complemented by the NRCC and Louisiana Republican Party, which waged an aggressive campaign against Jefferson and micro-targeted certain wards in New Orleans while blanketing the suburbs with TV, radio, and print ads. The result? Jefferson only very narrowly won Orleans county (New Orleans), losing many of that city’s wards while Cao won suburban Jefferson County, beating Jefferson overall by 3 percent.

Jefferson’s ethical and legal lapses were not enough to cost him re-election in a district with a 28 point Democratic edge—the incredible effort of the Republican Party in fielding a top-tier candidate and supporting him in every way possible with the full heft and resources of the national, state, and local party apparatuses should and will provide a blueprint for how Republicans can win even in the bluest of districts. Let’s not forget that Republican Jim Ogonowski came within 5 points of knocking off Paul Tsongas' wife in Massachusetts in 2007. With the right message and the right candidates, the GOP can win again everywhere, becoming a dominant party in the northeast again and refusing to cede any district to the Democrats.

These two Republican victories in Louisiana, combined with Saxby Chambliss’ double-digit win in Georgia last week are evidence that the Republican party is not dead and that conservatism is still alive and well. Since Obama’s victory, the Republicans are 3-3 in special congressional elections, and with the right message and right candidates, the party can make huge gains in 2010. That is, if it takes anything from these special elections and creates an organizational framework going into 2010.

As for Louisiana, the fact that the most liberal and Democratic district of the state has elected a conservative Republican further underscores the state’s sharp turn to the right in the last decade. Just six years ago, a majority of Louisiana’s congressional delegation was Democratic—now only one of its 7 congressional seats is held by a Democrat (and that seat, held by Charles Melancon, was formerly held by Republican Billy Tauzin, and it is expected to switch back to Republican control in 2010 or 2012, giving Louisiana complete GOP control of its delegation). Louisiana also has a GOP governor and senator, and was one of only a few states to give John McCain a greater share of its vote in this year’s presidential election than George W. Bush in 2004.

2008 proves Kansas is less purple and more red

Despite the Obama phenomenon nationally, and the Democratic presidential candidate's coattails pulling Democrats across the finish line in races around the country, Kansas Democrats actually lost ground. Despite Gov. Sebelius' use of shadowly 527 groups like the Bluestem Fund, and the hundreds of thousands of dollars spent by Kansas Democratic Party and out-of-state groups, far surpassing the resources of key Republican and conservative groups, the KS Democrats only have a net gain of one state house seat to show for their efforts (Republicans still hold a 77-48 edge in the lower chamber). Additionally:

• Sen. Pat Roberts won re-election with 60 percent of the vote. Jim Slattery's 36 percent is only a little better than what he garnered when he ran against Bill Graves for governor in 1994, before heading to DC for his lobbying career. Despite eager attempts by the KC Star and other liberal media to paint this race as an upset opportunity, the numbers show that there was no chance of Slattery defeating the popular and well-liked Roberts
• KS Democrats actually had a net loss of one state senate seat (a net gain for the GOP). In the 40 member senate, the Democrats are now just down to 9 seats.
• One of the greatest successes: GOP state treasurer Lynn Jenkins defeated incumbent Nancy Boyda in the 2nd congressional district 51 to 46 percent, one of only a handful of races nationwide where an incumbent Democrat was defeated. KS now has 3 Republicans in its congressional delegation and one Democrat.
• Several Republicans targeted by Sebelius' machine won handily. Former Shawnee state representative Mary Pilcher Cook handily won her race to succeed Nick Jordan in the state senate, defeating her opponent by 10 percent despite being heavily outspent and targeted by outside liberal groups.
• Sen. Julia Lynn, running for the first time to retain the seat she was appointed to, faced Olathe Superintendent Ron Wimmer in a heavily targeted race against an opponent with great name recognition. Lynn turned the tables on her opponents and won by 10 percent in a race the pundits told us would be "close."

Kansas Republicans should be proud--the "Roberts effect" outweighed the "Obama effect" and despite all her organizational efforts, Sebelius will leave Cedar Crest with less Democrats in office than when she first took the oath of office. Combined with the still resounding 287,000 Republican registration advantage statewide, Republicans will be in great shape as 2010 approaches. Next time: watch as we chroncile some new, some old faces in the party and who we think has the right skills and message to advance as the future of the Kansas GOP.