Top 6 Kansas state house races

Back in the land of Oz (well, not exactly, but I do know someone with a dog named Toto) there may be some major changes come November. Jim Barnett is running against Kathleen Sebelius for governor, and newcomer Chuck Ahner is taking on four-term incumbent Dennis Moore (which is always interesting, because in this GOP-heavy district there is always a chance that Ahner can pull it off, although it's a longshot at this point given Moore's advantages of incumbency, money, and special-interest spending, which earns him the votes of far too many Republicans. However, all of these races are being overshadowed by the Attorney General's race between incumbent Phil Kline (R) and Johnson County DA Paul Morrison (D), which will be extremely close. However, the Democrats also have a chance to make some gains in the state legislature. These are the seats in danger (from most to least vulnerable) that Democrats are throwing money, fundraisers, and appearances by Sebelius into, while Republicans are sweating and working hard to keep these seats:

1. 39th District--Owen Donohoe (R) vs. Cory Mohn (D)
Incumbent liberal Republican Ray Cox retired and endorsed a moderate successor who lost in the primary, so Cox endorsed the Democrat, in a blow to conservative medical supply owner Donohoe. This is a tough district politically for the GOP, encompassing far western Shawnee (past Monticello Rd.) and parts of heavily-democratic Wyandotte Co. (KCK, Bonner Springs, Edwardsville) and Leavenworth in a district that is large in area but small in population. Corey Mohn is an extreme liberal, a supporter of Howard Dean who ran for U.S. Congress for Missouri but lost in the Democratic primary because he was even too liberal for the St. Louis area. Now, he is trying in Kansas under the guise of a "mainstream" candidate. He's slick and is receiving top consideration in funding right now, and this is a race that the Republicans can't afford to lose. Owen was underestimated in the primary and showed a conservative could win, so this race is a good opportunity for him to fight hard to get this seat.

2. 18th District--Rep. Mary Pilcher Cook (R) vs. Cindy Neighbor (D)
In their third rematch, this time in a general election in opposing parties rather than the usual moderate-conservative battle, this race had been the top target by the dems this year, until recent developments in the 39th District. Most of Shawnee and Lake Quivira make up this district (this is my home district and my rep--whom I work for). Internal polling and Mary's travels throughout the district indicate that Cindy is losing steam, and this is becoming an increasingly safe seat for one of the most conservative reps in the house. Mary has an impeccable record in constituent service, and her strong positions on abortion, taxes, and gay marriage is often eclipsed by her thoughtful newsletters, town hall forums, and other outreach to constituents. This seat is still in play, but it seems that momentum is shifting to Mary. After all, although public education is a #1 issue, we cannot forget this is Phil Kline's old district.

3. 23rd District--Judy Morrison (R) vs. Milak Talia (D)
This district encompasses eastern Shawnee (east of Quivira and Shawnee Mission Pkwy) and all of Merriam. Merriam's proximity to KC gives this district a high number of Democrats, and before her election several years ago, Morrison's only political experience was serving as precinct committeewoman when she was chosen to serve the rest of Cliff Franklin's term and then run on her own. Morrison is a moderate conservative who does her best to stake out moderate, middle-of-the road votes on increased education spending and health care, while downplaying her otherwise conservative record. Two years ago, she narrowly won by only 5% against an unknown, underfunded Democrat. This year, her opponent has deep pockets and plenty of financial support from the state party (during the primary, his yard signs were everywhere).

4. 24th District--Ed O'Malley (R) vs. Andy Sandler (D)
O'Malley, a freshman in the house, is up for re-election for the first time, and despite being the son of a famous and well-known legislator, he is facing a tough battle in a district that includes the close-in KC suburbs of Mission, Northern Overland Park, and Southern Roeland Park. His opponent is new, bold, and a workaholic. O'Malley has walked a thin line, retaining his pro-life views while winning the support of Mainstream Coalition and other liberal-leaning groups due to his education and spending votes. This district is becoming increasing liberal, this may be the year O'Malley's in trouble. This race could go either way.

5. 20th District--Kevin Yoder (R) vs. Alex Holsinger (D)
Yoder, a lawyer and recent KU Law school grad is a freshman up for re-election, after being elected in 2002 and re-elected in 2004. This district includes a sliver of Leawood and a large portion of central Overland Park between 95th and Metcalf and 115th and Metcalf. This district is home to Sprint and Applebees, two largest corporations headquartered in JoCo. Yoder began as a moderate, but has become more conservative in four years he's been in the house, costing him the endorsements of several more moderate to liberal single-issue groups that have endorsed his opponent. Holsinger, is an avowed liberal, both socially and economically, and his major backing by the party, and Yoder's conservative leanings (as one of the more conservative moderates out of JoCo's moderate Republicans) put this race in play, but Yoder is heavily favored at this point.

6. 25th District--Terrie Huntington (R) vs. Missy Taylor (D)
This district consists of the cities of Fairway, Mission Woods, Westwood, Westwood Hills, parts of Prairie Village and Roeland Park, and the wealthy enclave of Mission Hills. Huntington, one of the most liberal Republicans in Kansas, represents this liberal-leaning district well, but is facing a tough challenge from former teacher Taylor, who is accusing Huntington of being an extreme, right-wing conservative, and doing the bidding of Bush. There is no question that moderates and even disgruntled conservatives will unite to vote in the lesser of two liberals, or rather keep out a far left liberal in favor of a moderate liberal, but the question is whether that will be enough. As liberal as the district is, they tend to vote for the R (even in presidential elections, although only slightly) and maybe the "R" next to her name will be enough to let Huntington squeak out a narrow win.

Iowa Governor's race is tight

Latest poll from Iowa from SurveyUSA shows Nussle(R) and Culver(D) tied at 48-48% support. This governor's race is going down to the wire!

John Bolton understands the UN

This past week, as the newly-elected president of the Creighton College Republicans, I and some other members went down to Lincoln to see Ambassador John Bolton speak at the Univ. of Nebrasa about the UN. Great speech and one great point he made. The 50 or so member nations that voted for extensive UN reform to right the wrongs done by Oil-for-Food and other scandals (essentially the U.S., western and eastern European countries, Australia, and Japan) voted for the reforms, while 120 other nations voted down the reforms. These 120 other nations only contribute about 12 percent of the entire budget of the U.N., while the small group of 50 mostly western nations that voted for the reforms contribute about 80 percent of the U.N.'s overall operating budget. The numbers are just staggering. But of course, anyone who thought that reform in the UN would take place within a year is utterly clueless...

Bolton is doing his best to push reform through. Perhaps one of his greatest quotes during the speech occured when someone asked him why he thought he was always right. Bolton replied with a whiff of confidence, "I was one of the few philosophical conservatives at Yale. I was right then and I believe I'm right now."

Brandon Kenig, Johnson County GOP Committeeman

My successful pushcard for my precinct committee race.
I didn't mean to publish this, but you guys might as well see some
great political marketing at work during these technical difficulties...

Balkanization of America

At a perilous time in history, when an underestimated, charismatic dictator with evil designs has the power and the insanity to threaten the civilized world, we have problems at home.

President Ahmadinejad of Iran represents the strand of radical, totalitarian Islam that is dominating Muslim circles at the moment. Here at home, as evidenced by this Washington Post article, we have a sect of extremely conservative Muslims who feel that to live their lives of faith, thy must cut themselves off from almost all contact with the modern western world, living in small groups and clustered around a mosque and several community-owned stores and services. It is this kind of self-segregated isolation that led to the radical, extremist elements in Britain, that attempted to blow up several airliners recently (Britain leads the world in radical imams and segregated Muslim communities where death to America and extremism is preached and cultivated daily). If the U.S. government does not take action immediately to halt this extremist ideology and coerce these Islamic communities in the D.C. area and elsewhere into integration, we will face the same danger as our ally across the pond. America, the great melting pot with a unified purpose and culture, will succumb to ethnic fragmentation as has been realized in the Balkans in eastern Europe.

Check out the article here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/04/AR2006090401107.html

Election Day Update!

This last Tuesday was a big election day in here in Kansas First, I won my race for Republican Precinct Committeeman for Shawnee Ward 2, Precinct 4 against entrenched incumbent Tom Slezak. I won with 56% of the vote, and my mom, running for committeewoman, won with 52% despite a last minute mail blitz by a “Kansas Republicans for Education” group that endorsed the Slezaks. The group sent out a mailing the friday before Election day with a perforated list that voters could tear off and take with them to the voting booth. Walking every house in my entire precinct definitely helped me pull this off; without that, I could not have won. Also, the push-cards I handed out to everyone and my last-ditch calling the night before the election made the difference between having a couple-vote loss/win to a strong majority.

In other races, Conservative Jim Barnett squeked out a victory with 36% of the vote in the GOP primary to take a shot at Sebelius in the Fall. Ken Canfield followed with 26%, followed by Jennison with 22%. While I believe Canfield would have been a stronger candidate, Barnett/Wagle is definitely better than Jennison and the other fringe candidates, and hopefully, they will give her a run for her money.

My guy, Chuck Ahner, won the 3rd District GOP primary handily against state rep. Scott Schwab (51%-33%). Ahner was definitely the stronger candidate, and all the work I did for him paid off. Ahner won Johnson, Wyandotte, and Douglas counties. He’s the best guy to take on Dennis Moore in Kansas’ only Democratic-held congressional district (a majority Republican district, by the way, which has been held by Moore for 4 terms).

Conservative newcomer Eric Carter couldn’t beat incumbent Sandy Praeger for Insurance commissioner however (but oddly enough, Carter won in moderate-heavy Johnson County and the eastern part of the state but lost in rural, conservative-heavy western Kansas).

Ron Thornburgh held on as Secretary of State easily from a challenge by conservative state senator Kay O’Connor of Olathe (70%-28%). Thornburgh, embraced by both moderates and conservatives, was endorsed by both the liberal MAINstream Coalition and Kansans for Life.
Conservatives knocked off a few moderate incumbents in house races, and other seats were taken by moderates with no opposition from conservatives.

At least Phil Kline will be running statewide on a ticket with popular moderate Repubicans Sanday Praeger and Ron Thornburgh. Maybe, just maybe, it will be enough to put him over the edge and beat Paul Morrison for a second term as attorney general. He needs all the help
He can get…

Next week is the explosive Connecticut Democratic primary between Liebermann and Ned Lamont. Watch for an update.

I'm running for office

I'm sure all of you have wondered what I've been doing. My last posting was the beginning of June concerning the special election in San Diego. Well, I've been recruited to run for Republican Precinct Committeeman for Shawnee (ward 2, precinct 4) in the August primary election. My state representative, Mary Pilcher Cook, persuaded me to run for the position, which is so small that few people know what it is (even back in 2004, I didn't know what the office was or the names on the ballot, so I just picked the name that sounded best). As small as they are, precinct committee members are vital to the local county and state party apparatus and can affect the direction of the party for years to come. A precinct is the smallest political unit, and basically consists of a few hundred voters in a cluster of neighborhoods (state legislative districts typically have 10-15 precincts, U.S. Congressional districts typically have 500-800 precincts).

Each precinct elects one committeeman and woman from each party to serve a two-year term. Duties include:

1. Writing and voting on the county party platform and bylaws (in this case, the Johnson County
Republican Party (deciding whether the local party will be pro-life, against gun control, etc.)
2. Electing the executive board (president, VP, treasurer) of the county party. This is
important because the executive board decides which candidates to fund for public office, all
the way up to U.S. congress.
3. Appoint delegates to go to the state convention and help write the state party's platform
(hopefully, I'll get chosen to do this--it would be awesome to help write the Kansas GOP
platform).
4. Appoint replacements for state legislators and local elected officials who leave office abruptly
due to death or retirement.

The reason this is going to be such a big deal in Kansas is due to the Attorney General's race. Johnson County DA Paul Morrison is running against incumbent Phil Kline in the general election. If Morrison wins, the GOP precinct committee member in JoCo will have to appoint a replacement to the DA's office (because Morrison was elected as a Republican, he just now switched to the Dem. party). It could mean the difference between having someone like Kris Kobach or Phil Kline as DA or another closet Democrat.

Precinct Committee positions are seen as a stepping stone to higher office. Former Kansas GOP director Mark Parkinson got his start in politics by winning election as precinct committeeman at 19 years old. Current state legislator Rep. Judy Morrison (R-Shawnee), was a precinct committeewoman when a vacancy arose in her legislative district. Her fellow precinct committeemembers elected her to fill the remainder of the incumbent's term in Topeka and she has now successfully ran and won re-election twice having only held office as a precinct committeewoman before.

In 1996, it was one precinct committeewoman's vote that kept a clause supporting the right to life in the Kansas GOP platform.

So as you can see, the positions are vital, and with 6,000 precinct committeepositions across the state, they're also numerous. I encourage all of you to get involved in your local party, whether Democrat or Republican--Oh, did I forget to mention that precinct committee members are frequently chosen to represent the state party at events such as national party conventions in presidential election years?

Anyway, I will update this site when I have time. I'm running against entrenched incumbents, so I have an uphill battle, but I am knocking on every door and handing out a push card introducing myself to voters. Election day is just 20 days away.