Election Day 2009: An Obama Referendum and Republican Resurgence?

In three states tomorrow, voters will head to the polls to and vote in off-year elections viewed to be a referendum on Obama's policies in the first 10 months of his presidency. The elections in Virginia and New Jersey, where voters will elect new legislators to their statehouses and choose new governors in seats currently held by Democrats, could provide insight into a possible Republican resurgence in 2010. In 1993, Republicans re-captured the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey before going on to gain control of congress in the 1994 Republican revolution.

Attorney General Bob McDonnell is expected to handily win the governor's race in Virginia after 11 years of Republican control. Additionally, Republicans are expected to win the lieutenant governor's seat and attorney general's seat (based on recent polling) as well as increase their margins in the House of Delegates and State Senate. McDonnell, a native of northern Virginia, is expected to even perform well there--in the state's most urban and populated suburbs of Washington, D.C., which had been trending strongly Democratic until recently: just this year, Fairfax County elected a Republican to a formerly Democratic-held county commissioner's seat, a Republican came within half a percentage point of winning a county commission chair election, a Republican came within 16 votes of winning an Alexandria-based state house seat, and two Republicans actually won positions on the Alexandria city council.

New Jersey, one of the most Democratic states in the nation, is on the verge of throwing out incumbent governor and Goldman Sach's millionaire Jon Corzine in favor of U.S. Attorney Chris Christie. This race will be a bitter fight to the end, but despite recent appearances by Obama, campaign momentum had remained with Christie in recent days.

Voters in New York's 23rd congressional district are going to the polls in a special election to fill John McHugh's seat after his appointment by Obama to be Secretary of the Navy. Republican leaders chose liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava as their nominee but faced a revolt from conservative activists when Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman entered the race. Scozzafava saw her support plummet in the polls in this very rural and strongly Republican upstate New York district as Republican heavyweights from Sarah Palin to Fred Thompson to George Pataki endorsed her Conservative Party opponent, so she suspended her campaign this past weekend and true to form, endorsed the Democrat in the race. Polls show this to be a tight race, but conservative Hoffman has the edge in most polls and now has the backing of the Republican Party establishment.

Lastly, although not as high profile as the other 3 races, voters in California's 50th district in the ultra-liberal San Fransisco bay area will choose between Democrat John Garamendi and Republican David Harmer after Democrat Rep. Ellen Tauscher was appointed to a federal position by Obama. Tauscher won this district with 65 percent of the vote in 2008 and Obama won the district 65-33 percent, but recent polls give Garamendi a lead of only 7-10 points. If the Republican comes within single digits in a liberal district just outside San Fransisco, this will be yet another sign of public unease with Obama and Pelosi's Washington.

As far as New Jersey, Virginia, and NY-23 are concerned, if Republicans win 2 of these 3, a major case can be made for the impending Republican gains and possible takeover of congres in 2009.

Here are my predictions:

VA:
McDonnell (R) – 58%
Deeds (D) – 41%

NJ:
Christie (R) – 47%
Corzine (D) – 44%
Daggett (I) – 9%

NY:
Hoffman (C)– 47%
Owens (D) – 40%
Scozzafava (liberal R) – 13%

BREAKING: Ethics investigation, scandal involving several congressmen, including Tiahrt

The Politico and The Washington Post are breaking a major story--the Department of Justice and the house ethics committee are investigating whether a former Appropriations Committee staffer and employee of PMA (a prominent consulting/lobbying firm) used "straw man donors" to improperly funnel money to members on the house appropriations committee, including Congressman Todd Tiahrt.

More as this story develops and its ramifications for Tiahrt's campaign for the U.S. Senate here in KS...

Ed Eilert to speak to JoCo Young Republicans

The Johnson County Young Republicans will be meeting this Wednesday, Oct 7th at 7 pm at Old Chicago at 119th and Metcalf. Former Overland Park Mayor and current Johnson County Commissioner Ed Eilert will be their guest speaker. Eilert is running for JoCo Commission Chairman against current incumbent Annabeth Surbaugh in what is predicted to be the most high-profile race locally in next year's general election. Eilert served as an Overland Park city councilman for four years before becoming the city's major for 28 years during its rise as Kansas City's leading suburb in population growth, business relocation, and economic development. Eilert was elected to the Johnson County Commission in 2006 and continues to serve on the boards and committees of many local civic and community organizations.

This race for the county's top post pits two well-known JoCo establishment politicians against each other. Surbaugh, a longtime commissioner prior to being elected commission chair, has always maintained a cadre of endorsements from Johnson County's movers and shakers and retains savvy political skills--she cannot be underestimated. However, Surbaugh has faced increasing criticism in the past four years for county budgetary woes, decisions to participate in cross-state tax initiatives such as bi-state, and the county's relationship with the cities and municipalities. Conservative activist and reformer Charlotte O'Hara came within a single percentage point of knocking off the well-funded, well-known Surbaugh in 2006.

Eilert brings star power and his longtime record and tenure as Overland Park mayor, fueling the growth and development of Kansas City's largest suburb in the '70s, 80s, and '90s. Eilert is running on a fiscally conservative platform and can match Surbaugh in fundraising abilities, name recognition, and crucial endorsements. Surbaugh's supporters would argue that she maintained stability and steered the county through some of its greatest economic challenges and a debilitating recession, while Eilert's supporters would argue that with her somewhat brash management style and her focus on bi-state initiatives, she has alienated municipal leaders and neglected the needs of the county, while refusing to take the difficult but necessary steps to reign in spending. Surbaugh's supporters charge that running a city, however large, does not compare to running a county and that Eilert is a novice compared to Surbaugh.

I would rate this race as favoring Eilert, but it would be a mistake to ever count Surbaugh out. However, Surbaugh is in the race of her life and this unusual matching is giving many of Johnson County's civic and municipal leaders headaches as they attempt to choose between two leaders they like fairly well.

What do you think?

Gallup Poll: Government doing too much to solve our problems

57 percent of Americans, the highest number in more than a decade, think the government is doing too much to solve our problems--becoming involved in actions that should be left to individuals and businesses. 45 percent believe there is excess government regulation of businesses. A majority of Independents share these views as well as one-fourth to one-third of all Democrats.

Americans have always preferred local control and governance that is closest to them. The massive expansion of the federal government in all sectors and industries after the financial crisis has only reinforced Americans' cynicism and skepticism towards corrupt, inefficient, and unaccountable federal bureaucracies.

Is Congress listening? Are you listening Mr. Moore? You supported the stimulus, cap and tax, and government-run healthcare against the wishes of your constituents. You have also co-sponsored union card check legislation to intimidate employers and employees alike. Congressman Moore is no blue dog, but he should be blue in the face from swallowing all the deceptive and fabricated claims of moderation and fiscal responsibility he rattles off to constituents at home while voting against their interests in D.C.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/123101/Americans-Likely-Say-Government-Doing-Too-Much.aspx

Upcoming Political Events...

Townhall with Sen. Sam Brownback

Sen. Sam Brownback, the next governor of Kansas, will be holding a townhall at Mid-America Nazarene University in Olathe this Monday, Sept. 21st from 6-7 pm at the Bell Cultural Events Center (2030 E. College Way). Brownback will discuss healthcare reform and other public policy issues at the forum.

Join the Johnson County GOP/YRs at the Overland Park Parade

Next Saturday is the Overland Park Fall Festival Parade, one of the largest parades in Johnson County. You can bet all local elected officials and candidates for 2010 will be there, including candidates for statewide and federal office from all over Kansas. Join the Johnson County Young Republicans as they team up with the county GOP to march in the Overland Park Fall Festival Parade Saturday, Sept. 26th at 2:00 pm in historic downtown Overland Park. The county party and YRs will be marching alongside a 1970 Plymouth Roadrunner and need volunteers to walk with us, wave to the crowds, help carry our JCRP banner, and hand out cards. Are you a candidate for office in 2010 or an elected Republican official? If so, please join us!If you would like to walk with us, please email JoCoYRs@gmail.com for more details.

House votes to defund ACORN; Cleaver backs sex-trafficking enablers

Ever since young journalists Hannah Giles and James O'Keefe went undercover and did the type of seasoned, investigative reporting that the mainstream media no longer does, we have learned that not only is ACORN shady and corrupt in their voter registration practices, they also encourage tax fraud, prostitution, and sex trafficking of minors.

Even the White House, which relied on ACORN to propel Obama to victory in the '08 primaries, is calling for investigations of the radical and corrupt leftist community group.

Led by Nebraska's great senator Mike Johanns, the Senate voted 83-7 to cut housing funding for ACORN, after the U.S. Census severed all ties with the group, which was to have an oversized role in the 2010 population count.

And now the U.S. House of Representatives has voted 345-75 to cut all funding to ACORN (Roll Call Vote. 718). It seems that Democrats are running for the hills and can't distance themselves enough from ACORN and these damaging revelations. All Democrats that is except for Congressman Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri's 5th District. Kansas City's congressman voted with 45 of his vacuous and corruption-prone colleagues to retain funding for this criminal outfit. Cleaver should be ashamed and the citizens of the 5th District should be outraged.

Even liberal Dennis Moore of KS' 3rd District had the common sense not to cast an outright vote supporting corruption--Cleaver was the lone congressional voice in KC supporting the politics of corruption.

If you live in Jackson County, call Congressman Cleaver or email him and ask why he supports taxpayer funding for encouraging sex trafficking of minors, prostitution, and tax fraud. Demand answers for his indefensible vote to continue the funding of corruption-as-usual.

Contact Cleaver and let him know ENOUGH is ENOUGH! You do not want your hard-earned taxpayer dollars going to an organization that encourages tax fraud and the sexual abuse of women and children.

Congressman Emanuel Cleaver
www.house.gov/cleaver

DC Office: 202-225-4535
KC Office: 816-842-4545
Independence Office: 816-833-4545

9.11.01: We Will Never Forget

As we remember the lives lost and sacrifices made on this tragic day, let us not forget the ongoing, persistent threat of Islamic terrorism against U.S. and Western interests around the world.

Our government, to their credit, has thwarted at least 21 large-scale terror attacks against Americans since 2001, including the most recent discovery by the FBI: planned attacks by a 39-year old North Carolina contractor and home-grown terrorist who converted to Islam and travelled to Pakistan to train for jihad.

We witnessed the violent bombings of a hotel complex in Mumbai, India last November, which resulted in the murder of 300 civilians including 5 Americans. This year, we witnessed the bombing of a hotel in Indonesia popular with westerners. And so the war on our values, our culture, our democracy, our entire way of life--continues.

With our faltering economy and the increasingly contentious debate about the government's takeover and intervention in healthcare and private industry, it is relatively easy to become disillusioned with our domestic problems and lose focus on the serious foreign policy threats we still face, from the emergence and mobilization of strengthened terror cells to the provocations of state supporters of terrorism like Iran. We live in a dangerous world that is increasingly destabilized and in the midst of major geopolitical power struggles among ever-changing nation states. We must therefore remain vigilant and always on the defensive.

9/11...We can and must never forget.